Tools That Estimate Breast Cancer Risk

To estimate your risk of breast cancer, your health care provider looks at which risk factors you have.

A few factors, such as having a BRCA1 or BRCA2 inherited gene mutation, are linked to a high risk of breast cancer. However, most known risk factors are linked to a small or modest increase in risk.

Exactly which risk factors should be used to estimate breast cancer risk is still under study.

Although men can get breast cancer, the tools used today only estimate breast cancer risk for women.

Learn more:

• Risk factors for breast cancer
• Individual risk versus group risk

Breast cancer risk assessment tools

Your health care provider may use a risk assessment tool to estimate your breast cancer risk. However, a tool cannot predict whether or not you’ll get breast cancer. It does not calculate an individual woman’s breast cancer risk.

Different tools use different models to estimate risk over a period of time (for example, 5-year risk, 10-year risk and lifetime risk).

All risk assessment tools have limitations. For example, they vary in the factors they use to assess breast cancer risk, but no tool uses all the known (established) risk factors.

Risk assessment tools are designed to be used by health care providers. So, if you use a tool on your own, it may be hard to understand the results and use the information to make decisions about your care.

How to interpret your estimated breast cancer risk

Talk with your health care provider about your breast cancer risk based on the results of any risk assessment tool. Then together, you and your provider can make decisions about your breast care. This is called shared decision-making.

Learn more about understanding risk.

Individual risk versus group risk

Breast cancer risk assessment tools cannot predict whether or not you’ll get breast cancer. They do not calculate an individual woman’s breast cancer risk.

Instead, these tools give the average risk of getting breast cancer for a group of women with similar risk factors. It’s not clear what this risk means for any one woman.

Most people diagnosed with breast cancer are at average risk and we do not know what caused the cancer to develop. Because the disease process is so complex, it’s hard to know how a certain set of risk factors will affect any one person. When we look at groups of people, it becomes clearer.

For example, say a tool gives you a 1% chance of getting breast cancer within the next 5 years. This means the tool estimates 1% of women who have risk factors similar to yours will develop breast cancer within the next 5 years. However, the tool cannot predict which of these women will get breast cancer.

The Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (the Gail Model)

The Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool (the Gail model) calculates a woman’s risk of getting breast cancer over the next 5 years and within her lifetime (up to age 90) using:

• Age and race/ethnicity
• Reproductive history (age at first menstrual period and, for those who have given birth, age at the time of the birth of a first child)
• Family history of breast cancer
• History of breast biopsies

Women with a 5-year risk of 1.67% or higher are classified as high-risk. A 5-year risk of 1.67% or higher is the FDA guideline for taking a risk-reducing drug to lower breast cancer risk.

Limits of the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool

The Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool does not use all the known risk factors for breast cancer to assess risk. For example, it does not include breast density.

It also does not give a good risk estimate for some women, including those with a [1]:

• Personal history of invasive breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS)
• Personal history of lobular carcinoma in situ (LCIS)
• BRCA1 or BRCA2 inherited gene mutation

Visit the National Cancer Institute website to learn more about the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool.

Other breast cancer risk assessment tools

IBIS, CanRisk, Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium

The risk assessment tools below use a woman’s personal and family health history, as well as reproductive history, breast density and other factors to estimate breast cancer risk:

• IBIS (the Tyrer-Cuzick model)
• CanRisk (the BOADICEA model)
• Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium risk calculator

These tools can be used for women who have:

• A BRCA1 or BRCA2 inherited gene mutation or
• One or more relatives with breast cancer or ovarian cancer

Black Women’s Health Study

The Black Women’s Health Study Breast Cancer Risk Calculator is based on data from Black women in the U.S. It uses personal and family health history as well as reproductive history to estimate risk.

Talking with your health care provider about your risk of breast cancer

Watch our video of Komen grantee Dr. Tarah Ballinger who shares why it’s important to know if you’re at higher risk of breast cancer.

If you have questions about your risk of breast cancer, talk with your doctor, nurse or other health care provider.

Your family health history plays a role in your breast cancer risk. Before you meet with your health care provider, it’s helpful to collect information about your family health history.

Information on any cancers diagnosed in both the women and men in your family (and the ages when they were first diagnosed) will be helpful in assessing your breast cancer risk.

If you’re considering genetic testing to learn if a family history of cancer is due to an inherited gene mutation related to cancer risk, talk with your health care provider or a genetic counselor. They can help you decide if genetic testing is right for you and your family.

Learn more about inherited gene mutations.

Learn more about family history of breast cancer and breast cancer risk.

My Family Health History Tool

My Family Health History tool is an online tool that makes it easy for you to record and organize your family health history. It helps you gather information that will be useful as you talk with your family members, doctor or cancer genetic counselor.

Looking ahead at breast cancer risk assessment

As research in risk assessment grows, tools like the Breast Cancer Risk Assessment Tool will be better able to predict breast cancer risk in large groups of women.

Future risk models may incorporate imaging using artificial intelligence (AI) and genetic information to estimate breast cancer risk.

Updated 11/07/26

This content is regularly reviewed by an expert panel including researchers, practicing clinicians and patient advocates.